Thursday, June 11, 2020

May Revenue Numbers Released

General Fund revenue collections fell 20.6 percent in May, according to information released by the office of Virginia Governor Ralph Northam. This number was slightly better than expected. This is primarily due to delaying the individual tax due date to June 1, and the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on payroll withholding and retail sales. 

May is typically a significant month for revenue collections. In addition to regular collections of withholding and sales taxes, estimated and final payments for individuals were due May 1. This year, the Governor authorized any individual and corporate income tax payments due between April 1, 2020 and June 1, 2020 to be due on June 1, 2020. The extension applies to final payments and extension payments for taxable year 2019, and the first estimated payment for taxable year 2020. Therefore, June receipts will be required to properly assess total fiscal year revenues.

On a fiscal year-to-date basis, total revenue collections have declined by 1.2 percent, trailing the annual forecast of 3.1 percent growth. To attain the current official revenue forecast, June collections must be $3.3 billion, compared with $2.4 billion collected in June of last year.

Collections of payroll withholding taxes fell 13.0 percent in May. Collections of sales and use taxes, reflecting April sales, fell 12.5 percent in May. The month represents a full month of reduction in sales due to numerous store closings during the COVID-19 pandemic. 

On a year-to-date basis, collections of payroll withholding taxes—62 percent of General Fund revenues—increased 3.1 percent, trailing the annual forecast of 4.7 percent growth. Sales tax collections advanced 5.4 percent on a fiscal year-to-date basis, also trailing the annual forecast of 7.4 percent growth. On a fiscal year-to-date basis, total revenue collections fell 1.2 percent in May behind the annual forecast of 3.1 percent growth. Collections in June must total $3.3 billion to attain the forecast. Collections in June of last year were $2.4 billion, and June collections are anticipated to be greater than the previous year due to delayed tax payments due June 1.

The full report is available here